AMP Oliver’s Insights – US Election Implications

AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver looks at next week’s US election in terms of the implications for investment markets under either a Trump or Clinton victory.

Dr Oliver summarises the key points as follows:

  • The smoothest outcome for investors from next Tuesday’s US election would be a Clinton victory but with the Republicans continuing to control the House of Representatives, ie, “more of the same”.
  • However, news of the FBI’s renewed examination of Clinton’s emails means the election outcome is back to being close. While some of Trump’s economic policies could provide a fiscal and supply side stimulus to the US economy, a Trump victory is likely to be initially negative for shares and favour safe havens like bonds and the US dollar as investors would fear his policies on trade in particular. This would be negative for Australian and Asian shares and for the growth sensitive $A.

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Oliver’s Insights